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The cost-effectiveness of progesterone in preventing miscarriages in women with early pregnancy bleeding: an economic evaluation based on the PRISM Trial (2020)

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Type of publication:
Journal article

Author(s):
CB Okeke Ogwulu, I Goranitis, AJ Devall, V Cheed, ID Gallos, LJ Middleton, HM Harb, HM Williams, A Eapen, JP Daniels, A Ahmed, R Bender‐Atik, K Bhatia, C Bottomley, J Brewin, M Choudhary, S Deb, WC Duncan, AK Ewer, K Hinshaw, T Holland, F Izzat, J Johns, M Lumsden, P Manda, JE Norman, N Nunes, CE Overton, K Kriedt, S Quenby, S Rao, J Ross, A Shahid, *M Underwood , N Vaithilingham, L Watkins, C Wykes, AW Horne, D Jurkovic, A Coomarasamy, TE Roberts

Citation:
BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology; May 2020; Vol 127 (no. 6); p. 757-767

Abstract:
Objectives: To assess the cost‐effectiveness of progesterone compared with placebo in preventing pregnancy loss in women with early pregnancy vaginal bleeding.
Design: Economic evaluation alongside a large multi‐centre randomised placebo‐controlled trial.
Setting: Forty‐eight UK NHS early pregnancy units.
Population: Four thousand one hundred and fifty‐three women aged 16–39 years with bleeding in early pregnancy and ultrasound evidence of an intrauterine sac.
Methods: An incremental cost‐effectiveness analysis was performed from National Health Service (NHS) and NHS and Personal Social Services perspectives. Subgroup analyses were carried out on women with one or more and three or more previous miscarriages.
Main outcome measures: Cost per additional live birth at ≥34 weeks of gestation.
Results: Progesterone intervention led to an effect difference of 0.022 (95% CI −0.004 to 0.050) in the trial. The mean cost per woman in the progesterone group was £76 (95% CI −£559 to £711) more than the mean cost in the placebo group. The incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio for progesterone compared with placebo was £3305 per additional live birth. For women with at least one previous miscarriage, progesterone was more effective than placebo with an effect difference of 0.055 (95% CI 0.014–0.096) and this was associated with a cost saving of £322 (95% CI −£1318 to £673).
Conclusions: The results suggest that progesterone is associated with a small positive impact and a small additional cost. Both subgroup analyses were more favourable, especially for women who had one or more previous miscarriages. Given available evidence, progesterone is likely to be a cost‐effective intervention, particularly for women with previous miscarriage(s).

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Synchronous versus sequential chemo-radiotherapy in patients with early stage breast cancer (SECRAB): A randomised, phase III, trial (2020)

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Type of publication:
Randomised controlled trial

Author(s):
Fernando I.N.; Spooner D.; Latief T.N.; Stevens A.; Bowden S.J.; Herring K.; Ahmed I.; Rea D.W.; Brookes C.L.; Marshall A.; Dunn J.; Grieve R.; Poole C.J.; Churn M.; *Agrawal R.K.; Brunt A.M.; Goodman A.; Canney P.; Ritchie D.; Bishop J.

Citation:
Radiotherapy and Oncology; 2020; Vol 24; p. 52-61

Abstract:
Background: The optimal sequence of adjuvant chemotherapy and radiotherapy for breast cancer is unknown. SECRAB assesses whether local control can be improved without increased toxicity.
Method(s): SECRAB was a prospective, open-label, multi-centre, phase III trial comparing synchronous to sequential chemo-radiotherapy, conducted in 48 UK centres. Patients with invasive, early stage breast cancer were eligible. Randomisation (performed using random permuted block assignment) was stratified by centre, axillary surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy boost. Permitted chemotherapy regimens included CMF and anthracycline-CMF. Synchronous radiotherapy was administered between cycles two and three for CMF or five and six for anthracycline-CMF. Sequential radiotherapy was delivered on chemotherapy completion. Radiotherapy schedules included 40 Gy/15F over three weeks, and 50 Gy/25F over five weeks. The primary outcome was local recurrence at five and ten years, defined as time to local recurrence, and analysed by intention to treat. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00003893.
Finding(s): Between 02-July-1998 and 25-March-2004, 2297 patients were recruited (1150 synchronous and 1146 sequential). Baseline characteristics were balanced. With 10.2 years median follow-up, the ten-year local recurrence rates were 4.6% and 7.1% in the synchronous and sequential arms respectively (hazard ratio (HR) 0.62; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.43-0.90; p = 0.012). In a planned sub-group analysis of anthracycline-CMF, the ten-year local recurrence rates difference were 3.5% versus 6.7% respectively (HR 0.48 95% CI: 0.26-0.88; p = 0.018). There was no significant difference in overall or disease-free survival. 24% of patients on the synchronous arm suffered moderate/severe acute skin reactions compared to 15% on the sequential arm (p < 0.0001). There were no significant differences in late adverse effects apart from telangiectasia (p = 0.03). Interpretation(s): Synchronous chemo-radiotherapy significantly improved local recurrence rates. This was delivered with an acceptable increase in acute toxicity. The greatest benefit of synchronous chemo-radiation was in patients treated with anthracycline-CMF.

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