Progesterone

Progesterone to prevent miscarriage in women with early pregnancy bleeding: the PRISM RCT (2020)

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Type of publication:
Randomised controlled trial

Author(s):
Coomarasamy A.; Harb H.M.; Devall A.J.; Williams H.M.; Gallos I.D.; Ewer A.; Cheed V.; Roberts T.E.; Ogwulu C.B.; Middleton L.J.; Goranitis I.; Eapen A.; Daniels J.P.; Ahmed A.; Hinshaw K.; Bender-Atik R.; Bhatia K.; Bottomley C.; Kriedt K.; Jurkovic D.; Brewin J.; Choudhary M.; Crosfill F.; Deb S.; Duncan W.C.; Norman J.E.; Horne A.W.; Holland T.; Izzat F.; Johns J.; Ross J.; Lumsden M.-A.; Manda P.; Nunes N.; Overton C.E.; Quenby S.; Rao S.; Shahid A.; *Underwood M. ; Vaithilingham N.; Watkins L.; Wykes C.

Citation:
Health Technology Assessment (Winchester, England); Jun 2020; vol. 24 (no. 33); p. 1-70

Abstract:
BACKGROUND: Progesterone is essential for a healthy pregnancy. Several small trials have suggested that progesterone therapy may rescue a pregnancy in women with early pregnancy bleeding, which is a symptom that is strongly associated with miscarriage. OBJECTIVE(S): (1) To assess the effects of vaginal micronised progesterone in women with vaginal bleeding in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy. (2) To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of progesterone in women with early pregnancy bleeding. DESIGN: A multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised trial of progesterone in women with early pregnancy vaginal bleeding. SETTING: A total of 48 hospitals in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Women aged 16-39 years with early pregnancy bleeding. INTERVENTIONS: Women aged 16-39 years were randomly assigned to receive twice-daily vaginal suppositories containing either 400mg of progesterone or a matched placebo from presentation to 16 weeks of gestation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was live birth at >=34 weeks. In addition, a within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted from an NHS and NHS/Personal Social Services perspective. RESULT(S): A total of 4153 women from 48 hospitals in the UK received either progesterone (n=2079) or placebo (n=2074). The follow-up rate for the primary outcome was 97.2% (4038 out of 4153 participants). The live birth rate was 75% (1513 out of 2025 participants) in the progesterone group and 72% (1459 out of 2013 participants) in the placebo group (relative rate 1.03, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.07; p=0.08). A significant subgroup effect (interaction test p=0.007) was identified for prespecified subgroups by the number of previous miscarriages: none (74% in the progesterone group vs. 75% in the placebo group; relative rate 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.95 to 1.04; p=0.72); one or two (76% in the progesterone group vs. 72% in the placebo group; relative rate 1.05, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.12; p=0.07); and three or more (72% in the progesterone group vs. 57% in the placebo group; relative rate 1.28, 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.51; p=0.004). A significant post hoc subgroup effect (interaction test p=0.01) was identified in the subgroup of participants with early pregnancy bleeding and any number of previous miscarriage(s) (75% in the progesterone group vs. 70% in the placebo group; relative rate 1.09, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.15; p=0.003). There were no significant differences in the rate of adverse events between the groups. The results of the health economics analysis show that progesterone was more costly than placebo (7655 vs. 7572), with a mean cost difference of 83 (adjusted mean difference 76, 95% confidence interval -559 to 711) between the two arms. Thus, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of progesterone compared with placebo was estimated as 3305 per additional live birth at >=34 weeks of gestation. CONCLUSION(S): Progesterone therapy in the first trimester of pregnancy did not result in a significantly higher rate of live births among women with threatened miscarriage overall, but an important subgroup effect was identified. A conclusion on the cost-effectiveness of the PRISM trial would depend on the amount that society is willing to pay to increase the chances of an additional live birth at >=34 weeks. For future work, we plan to conduct an individual participant data meta-analysis using all existing data sets. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN14163439, EudraCT 2014-002348-42 and Integrated Research Application System (IRAS) 158326. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 33. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

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A Randomized Trial of Progesterone in Women with Bleeding in Early Pregnancy (2019)

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Type of publication:
Randomised controlled trial

Author(s):
A. Coomarasamy, A.J. Devall, V. Cheed, H. Harb, L.J. Middleton, I.D. Gallos, H. Williams, A.K. Eapen, T. Roberts, C.C. Ogwulu, I. Goranitis, J.P. Daniels, A. Ahmed, R. Bender‑Atik, K. Bhatia, C. Bottomley, J. Brewin, M. Choudhary, F. Crosfill, S. Deb, W.C. Duncan, A. Ewer, K. Hinshaw, T. Holland, F. Izzat, J. Johns, K. Kriedt, M.-A. Lumsden, P. Manda, J.E. Norman, N. Nunes, C.E. Overton, S. Quenby, S. Rao, J. Ross, A. Shahid, *M. Underwood , N. Vaithilingam, L. Watkins, C. Wykes, A. Horne, and D. Jurkovic

Citation:
New England Journal of Medicine 2019;380:p.1815-24.

Abstract:
BACKGROUND
Bleeding in early pregnancy is strongly associated with pregnancy loss. Progesterone is essential for the maintenance of pregnancy. Several small trials have suggested that progesterone therapy may improve pregnancy outcomes in women who have bleeding in early pregnancy.
METHODS
We conducted a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate progesterone, as compared with placebo, in women with vaginal bleeding in early pregnancy. Women were randomly assigned to receive vaginal suppositories containing either 400 mg of progesterone or matching placebo twice daily, from the time at which they presented with bleeding through 16 weeks of gestation. The primary outcome was the birth of a live-born baby after at least 34 weeks of gestation. The primary analysis was performed in all participants for whom data on the primary outcome were available. A sensitivity analysis of the primary outcome that included all the participants was performed with the use of multiple imputation to account for missing data.
RESULTS
A total of 4153 women, recruited at 48 hospitals in the United Kingdom, were randomly assigned to receive progesterone (2079 women) or placebo (2074 women). The percentage of women with available data for the primary outcome was 97% (4038 of 4153 women). The incidence of live births after at least 34 weeks of gestation was 75% (1513 of 2025 women) in the progesterone group and 72% (1459 of 2013 women) in the placebo group (relative rate, 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.07; P=0.08). The sensitivity analysis, in which missing primary outcome data were imputed, resulted in a similar finding (relative rate, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.07; P=0.08). The incidence of adverse events did not differ significantly between the groups.
CONCLUSIONS
Among women with bleeding in early pregnancy, progesterone therapy administered during the first trimester did not result in a significantly higher incidence of live births than placebo. (Funded by the United Kingdom National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment program; PRISM Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN14163439.)

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